A wealth of new polling data and the events of recent weeks has shattered the media’s anti-Romney narratives. A new portrait is being painted, one where the race is either a statistical tie or Romney is winning over independents and overtaking the President.
Just weeks ago the consensus being talked about by pundits, commentators and talking heads was that Romney wasn’t going to be able to take the nomination. They screamed about a brokered convention and a divided Party. Then Rick Santorum, facing inevitability, dropped out. The new consensus? There is no way Romney can lose! All of those declaring Romney incapable of securing the nomination ignored giant mountains of polling data, historic examples of how presidential campaigns typically work and common sense. Their inept analysis would be akin to an observer watching a paper airplane heading toward the horizon and ignoring the laws of motion and the forces of friction and gravity to make a bold prediction that the plane would fly forever in one direction without slowing down.
Throughout this monstrously dishonest media frenzy another consensus was formed. The extended GOP primary was killing Romney. According to the consensus the extended primaries had “hurt” the candidate and “crippled” him. They claimed it was “hurting” him with hispanics and bleeding him. Wow you would think Romney was walking away from a knife and gun fight and not running in a giant popularity contest. I thought we were supposed to stop using weaponary, target and battle metaphors to describe politics post-Gabby Giffords shooting. Oh well.
Fast forward to the latest polling and that crippled candidate is actually kicking some major butt. Gallup opened their daily tracking showing Romney not only in the lead but taking independents. The Obama campaign cried fowl about methodology. Meanwhile CNN polling shows Romney’s favorability rising fast. Don’t just take their word for it, CBS/New York Times released a poll showing a dead heat and Reuters/Ipsos shows Romney gaining fast. Wow, that was a pretty sudden turn for a candidate who was “bleed” just days ago, wasn’t it?
Does this mean Romney will win? No, not by any stretch of the imagination, polling will change and is but one factor. What it does mean is that you shouldn’t believe most of what the pundits, prognosticators and talking heads have to say as they seem to be wrong most of the time. To believe that the campaign would go to a brockered convention was to suspend disbelief and ignore common sense. To believe that a prolonged primary would automatically spell doom for the ticket, was not only nonsensical, it ignored the prolonged fight that brought President Obama to the White House in 2008. To believe the Republican Party was truly destroying itself and Romney had no support any observer would have to ignore the fact that he kept winning primaries despite the fact that the current system was actually setup to make the nomination fight as difficult to win as it has ever been.
Reelection for Obama is not guaranteed and we have many months left until the election. Anyone who claims to have a magic ball capable of telling you otherwise is full of something unpleasant to smell.